XAUUSD confluence terminal

Six factors must agree — market structure, Fibonacci, liquidity, confirmation, session and volatility. Nothing fires below 76.

Timeframe

updating…

$4382.30

+0.45% vs prior close

Live spot feed · quoted 11:37 UTC

Score alerts

Turn alerts on and you'll hear a chime plus a pop-up only when a confirmed setup appears — the same signal shown in Live decision.

Alert at scorenow 49

Live decision

Asia

1D candle signal · next in 1200m · closes 00:00 UTCSignal issued at the open of this 1D candle and held until it closes at 00:00 UTC — next signal in 1200 min.

score

10% conf.

No trade — waiting for confluencerange structure

Reason: Equal lows swept at 4250.90 (fake breakout) + Head & shoulders pattern (bearish) at 4236.20 + Higher timeframe candle — spans London and New York + Healthy volatility (ATR 2.54%)

Scoring engine

threshold 76

Trend alignment0.0/30

Fibonacci zone10.0/20

Liquidity sweep20.0/20

Confirmation (BOS / engulfing)0.0/15

Chart pattern6.0/10

Session8.0/10

Volatility5.0/5

Macro (DXY / US10Y)0.0/5

Total49.0 / 100

Confidence 10% comes from a logistic model calibrated on 8 historical setups (min 76%).

Gold structure

1D candles · fib zone shaded

Checklist

✓Equal lows swept at 4250.90 (fake breakout)
✓Head & shoulders pattern (bearish) at 4236.20
✓Higher timeframe candle — spans London and New York
✓Healthy volatility (ATR 2.54%)
✕No clear trend — structure is ranging
✕Price outside the 0.5–0.786 retracement zone
✕Waiting for entry confirmation (BOS or engulfing candle)
✕No entry trigger on the signal candle

Backtest — same rules, 1D gold

5.0 years of data

Trades

Win rate

87.5%

Profit factor

8.50

Expectancy

+0.94R

Max drawdown

1.00R

Net result

+7.50R

Reached first target

88% of signals — half banked

Ran to full target

63% of signals

Closed at entry

first target banked, rest closed flat

Hit stop loss

13% of signals

2026-02-23-1.00R · SL

Side

BUY

Entry

5188.50

Exit

4721.07

Score 81

2025-09-19+1.50R · TP

Side

BUY

Entry

3668.70

Exit

3832.56

Score 79

2025-01-30+1.50R · TP

Side

BUY

Entry

2785.90

Exit

3004.86

Score 78

2023-03-14+0.50R · half banked, stop at entry

Side

BUY

Entry

1873.80

Exit

1873.80

Score 81

2022-08-30+1.50R · TP

Side

SELL

Entry

1699.20

Exit

1593.79

Score 78

2022-02-25+1.50R · TP

Side

BUY

Entry

1850.50

Exit

2015.31

Score 81

Date	Side	Entry	Exit	Score	Result
2026-02-23	BUY	5188.50	4721.07	81	-1.00R · SL
2025-09-19	BUY	3668.70	3832.56	79	+1.50R · TP
2025-01-30	BUY	2785.90	3004.86	78	+1.50R · TP
2023-03-14	BUY	1873.80	1873.80	81	+0.50R · half banked, stop at entry
2022-08-30	SELL	1699.20	1593.79	78	+1.50R · TP
2022-02-25	BUY	1850.50	2015.31	81	+1.50R · TP
2022-02-11	BUY	1805.00	1934.95	78	+1.50R · TP
2021-12-30	BUY	1777.00	1777.00	78	+0.50R · half banked, stop at entry

Risk & context

Risk per trade (1%)

$100.00

Position size

0.02 oz

0.00 standard lots · account $10,000

ATR (14)

$111.47

2.54% of price

Dollar bias

Strengthening

USD index proxy, 10-day drift

US 10-year yield

5.01%

Rising — gold headwind

• Analysis uses the live spot gold price ($4382.30).

Data: COMEX gold futures structure (1 day, 5y) · Live spot XAUUSD · Alpha Vantage USD index proxy · Alpha Vantage US10Y. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

Take profit vs stop loss

same rules, real gold history

Replaying every timeframe on real gold history…

Machine-learning probability model

gradient boosted trees

Training on 1D gold history… this runs right here in your browser.

Economic calendar

news filter on

No release in the blackout window right now — signals run normally.

Initial jobless claimsMedium impact

09/24 12:30 UTC · in 6d 8h

Weekly unemployment filings. Rising claims hint at a softening economy and support gold; falling claims favour the dollar. Short, sharp reaction.